I always compare my leveraged returns against the best practices in the market, such as professional REIT managers borrow banks to make money for their Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT). This allows me to evaluate the risks that I am taking vs the potential returns.
Leverage is defined as the process of borrowing money to make an investment, with the expectation that the profits made from the investment will be greater than the interest on the debt.
In my investments in bonds and reits, I like to use leverage. On the other hand, some of my friends stay clear of leverage. They try to pay off their loans as soon as possible.
So is leverage good or bad?
Almost every other day, the news read something like this :
“Asian stocks decline as trade concerns resurface”. Its getting a bit repetitive.
I was asked for my views of the current market, here is something simple.
Mapletree Ind Tr (ME8U.SI) is a potential entry using one of my favorite setups.
Frasers L&I Tr (BUOU.SI) is a potential entry using one of my favorite setups.
CapitaCom Trust (C61U.SI) is a potential entry using one of my favorite setups.
First Reit (AW9U.SI) is a potential entry using one of my favorite setups.
Singtel (Z74.SI) is a potential entry using one of my favorite setups.
Everyone wants to buy low, but how low is low enough?
One of my favorite buy setups is the use the weekly chart together with slow Stochastics. When it makes a “hook” in the oversold zone, its time to consider entering, as it may be low enough. For higher probability, combine it with candlesticks reversal pattern.
I like to “visualize” what may happen in the future so that I can be better prepared to respond if a similar situation occur in the future. Some call it “forecasting”, or “speculation”, but I like to call it visualizing. Please take my words with a great dose of salt!
I wanted to verify from data of the last 20 years, whether our local banks stocks rise when the US Fed Fund Rate rises. I shall use DBS as proxy for our local banks.
While I agree never to fight the Fed, I disagree that rising interest rates will cause a recession/crash. In fact, rising interest rates has always been good for stocks. It means that the economy is growing strongly, and the Fed wants to cool the economy.
It does mean the start of the end though. But do we know when the end is?
Bonds have been under pressure lately because of possible 4 times interest rate hikes because of inflation. Everyone is looking at the 10Y US Treasuries yield which currently stands at 2.87. Many analysts are saying the same thing, but I shall quote Schroders in a recent SIAS report, “based on our models, US equity valuations are sustainable as long as US 10Y yields does not go above 3%”. Yet, when I look back in Dec 2013, the US 10Y yield stood at 3.03%. Now what happened back in 2013 to 2014? It was then a great bull run for US stocks!
I should not be too cocky. It is not what I think that is important, but what most people are thinking.
Anyway found this post : https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-shouldnt-panic-over-falling-bond-prices-2018-02-13
I am sharing the various scenarios of Hyflux perps that is playing out in my mind. Please note that the following are my speculation as no one can predict the future.
Maybank Kim Eng (Hong Kong) Benny Wong gave a bearish view of Hong Kong. whereas Maybank Kim Eng (Singapore) presented that current market in Singapore maybe a buying opportunity (I posted this yesterday http://wealthlions.com/2018/02/maybank-ke-putting-cart-horse/).
Here is the article on Hong Kong market: